Idea Machines
Dr. Brian Arthur and I talk about how technology can...
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Oct 3 2021 1h 54m
Chapter 1 59 sec
Chapter 2 59 sec
because of the fascinating work he's done, building out theories of technology. Uh, as we discussed in the podcast, there's been a lot of theorizing around science, you know, with the works of popper and Kuhn and other. But there's has been much less rigorous work on how technology works despite its effect on our livesChapter 3 59 sec
only developer of that, but certainly one of the fathers, well, grandfather, one of the fathers, definitelyChapter 4 59 sec
start children, there's a kind of arc and, and thing. And you work all that out. And very often that reaches some completion. So most of the things I've been doing, we've reached a completion. I thought maybe it's because I getting ancient, but I don't think so. I think it was that I just kept working at these thingsChapter 5 59 sec
point of writing the book. So you can stop thinking about it. Right? Like you get it out of your head into the book. Yeah, you're done. So, okay. So this is very much Silicon valley and I left academia in 1996. I left StanfordChapter 6 59 sec
Why, why does that matter?Chapter 7 59 sec
We can do marvelous things with our smartphone. We switch on GPS and our cars, and very shortly that we won't have to drive at all presumably in a few yearsChapter 8 59 sec
invite them quite often to do the following thought experiments. Sometimes them giving talks. All right. TechnologyChapter 9 59 sec
you trying to wash your hands or brush your teethChapter 10 59 sec
just left there and. People then said to me, well, I mean, wouldn't there have been technologies then. Sure. So you know how to, if you're a really good architect, you might know how to build cathedrals. You might know how to do some stone bridgesChapter 11 59 sec
live? Because no modern medicine. Yeah, et cetera. So my point is that not only does technology influence us, it creates our entire worldChapter 12 59 sec
well-developed set of ideas or theories on what technology is when, where it comes from. Now, if you know, this area is a, was that true?Chapter 13 59 sec
make it the first name for him. Yeah. Walter VIN sent him. So I went to see one it's rarely top-notch aerospace engineers of the 20th century had lunch with them. And I said, have engineers themselves worked out a theory of the foundations of their subjectChapter 14 59 sec
We don't have much for theory at all. At least. This was 10, 15 years ago about how new technologies come into being. I started to think about this. And I reflected a lot because I was writing this book and people said, what are you writing about?Chapter 15 59 sec
Now it's 80 something. And maybe that's an, a bad year, like the last year. So, and that's technology, medical technology. We've really good diagnostics, great instruments very good methods, surgical proceduresChapter 16 59 sec
And then I began to observe something further in that one was that a lot of people. So wondering about how things change and evolve had really interesting thoughts about how science, what science is and how that evolvesChapter 17 59 sec
so on. So they're treating the technology has sort of like an exogenous effect sent there and they were treating that also. I discovered there's some brilliant books by economic historians and sociologists add constant is oneChapter 18 59 sec
in different species, say giraffes and Zebras and armadillos or something. It was as if they were trying to understand these from just looking outside. And it wasn't until a few decades later, the 1790s, the time of George cookie that people started to doChapter 19 59 sec
technology, people just by and large looking at the technology from the outside, and it didn't tell you much. I was at a seminar. I remember in Stanford where it was on technology every weekChapter 20 59 sec
more, you didn't open the box. You assume there was a modem who is adopting modems. How fast were modems, what was the efficiency of modems?Chapter 21 59 sec
isms and see similarities between species of toads and start to wonder how these different species had come about by getting inside. So to S set up my book, I decided that the key thing I was going to do, I didn't mention it much in the book, but was to get inside technologiesChapter 22 59 sec
And I found that in technology, after technology, once you opened it up, you discovered many of the same components. Yeah. So let me hold that thought for a moment. I thought it was amazing that when you look at technologies from the outside, you know, see canoes and giraffes, they don't look at all similar legsChapter 23 59 sec
I'd understand at least a dozen very well, indeed, meaning spending maybe years trying to. Understand certain technologies are understanding. And and then what I was going to do is to see how they had come into being and what could be said about them, but from particular sources. So I remember calling up the chief engineer on the Boeing 7 47 and asking them questions personally, the cool thing about technology, unlike evolution is that we can actually go and talk to the people who made it rightChapter 24 59 sec
again and again. So in some industrial system, safe for pumping air into coal mines or something, fresh air, you'd see compressors taking in their piping, it doneChapter 25 59 sec
And these genes were put together to express proteins and express different bone structures, skeletal structures, organs in different ways, but they were all put together or originated from roughly the same set of pieces put together differently or expressed differently, actuated differently. They would result in different animalsChapter 26 59 sec
same thing, polars and cranks, and the steam engine there be a place to keep fuel and to feed it with a coal or whatever it was operating onChapter 27 59 sec
Fundations the kinds of bolts and fasteners the do fastened together, concrete, high rise, cranes, and equipment et ceteraChapter 28 59 sec
I grew up in the UK. We'd call them mechano sets. What are they called here?Chapter 29 59 sec
of you were sitting here and what used to be Xerox park and Xerox graphy was invented by not by Mr. Xerox. Anyway, somewhere in here, but xerography was invented by someone who knew a lot about processes. A lot about paper, a lot about chemical processes, a lot about developing things. And shining light on paper and then using that maybe chemically at first and in modern Sarah BuffyChapter 30 59 sec
well-known onto something that was fairly new, which was called a Xerox drum. And that was electrostatically charged. And so you arranged that the light effected the electrostatic charges on the Xerox drum and those electrostatic as the drum revolved, it picked up particles of printing, ink like dust and where being differentially charged, and then imprinted that on paper and then fused itChapter 31 59 sec
people who are, who see a principal to do something to say, okay, you know, we want to copy somethingChapter 32 59 sec
So sort of just like on the idea of modularity for technology. Yeah. It feels like there's both I guess it feels like there's almost like two kinds of modularityChapter 33 59 sec
and then you had like a moving assembly line. Yep. And then Henry Ford came along and sort of like fused those together. And that feels like a different kind of modularity from the modularity ofChapter 34 59 sec
this is like, I, I was like, sort of like thinking through this, it feels like, like when, when you think of like the sort of like intellectual lineages of technology the, like a technology does not always contain the thing that inspires it, I guess is and so, so there's this kind of like evolution over time of like, almost like the intellectual lineage of a technology that is not necessarily the same as like theChapter 35 59 sec
doesn't fit with what you're talking about. I could fascinated by the whole subject of invention, you know, where to radically new technologies come from, not just tweaks on a technology. So we might have we might have a Pratt and Whitney jet engine in 1996, and then 10 years later have a different version of thatChapter 36 59 sec
begun to realize that what makes an invention is that it works in a different principle. So when Cox came along, the really primitive ones in the 12 hundreds, or a bit later than that are usually made up, they're made with their water clocks and are relying on this idea that a drip of water is fairly regularChapter 37 59 sec
Frequency or regular beat. So the country realize that inventions themselves something was carrying out unnecessary purpose using a different principle before the second world war in Britain, they in the mid 1930s, people got worried about aircraft coming from the continent. They thought it could well be terminated and and bombers coming over to bomb England and the standard methods then to detect bombers over the horizon was to get people with incredibly good hearing, quite often blind people and attach to their ear as the enormous air trumpet affair that went from their ear to some big concrete collecting amplifier, some air trumpet that was maybe 50 or a hundredChapter 38 59 sec
feet across to listen to what was going on in the skyChapter 39 59 sec
you switch it off very fast. Search can listen for an echo or electronically how do you direct the beam, et cetera, et cetera. How do you construct the whole thing? How can you get a very high energy beam because needed to be very high energyChapter 40 59 sec
concrete here, right?Chapter 41 59 sec
says February, March 20, 20 oh, cur we can do a vaccineChapter 42 59 sec
No great point there. I haven't thought of that. Possibly the, if they need to use a new principal themselves, the sub solutions. Yeah. Then you'd have to invent how that might work. But very often they're standing by let me give you an example. I hope this isn't I don't want to be too sort of technical here, please go, go, go, go rotateChapter 43 59 sec
figure out how to how to print. If you have an image in a computer, say a photograph, how do you print that now at that time?Chapter 44 59 sec
cooked up a principle, he went through several principles, but the one that he finished up using was the idea that you could take the information from the computer screens, a photograph you could use computer processors to send that to a laserChapter 45 59 sec
This was not a huge leap of the imagination, but there were two men's sub-problems in as well. We want to mention, if you look at it there's an enormous two huge problems if you wanted. So you were trying to get these black dots to write on a zero extremity to paint them on a zero EkstromChapter 46 59 sec
Lezzer on and off black or white 50 million times a second. Okay. So 50 megahertz, but nobody had thought of modulating or doing that sort of switching at that speed. So he had to solve that. That's a major problem. He solved it by circuitryChapter 47 59 sec
how do you write it? How do you write computer images? Print that onto paper. That's required a new principal switching on a laser and. 50 million times the second required a new principal or acquire a new principal. So those are two inventionsChapter 48 59 sec
a laser on the end of some huge apparatus that you're switching on and off the 15 million times a second and scan it back and forth. And because there's huge inertia, it's an enormous thing. And believe it or not, he, he solved that. Not with smoke, but with mirrors. So he actually, instead of moving the laser beam, He arranged for a series of mirrors under evolving a piece of apparatus, like actuate the mirrorsChapter 49 59 sec
face of the mirror exactly little mirror would come along and do the next line. So how do you do that?Chapter 50 59 sec
In manufacturing technology. But you could do it with optics. It just said, okay, if there's a slight discrepancy, we will correct thatChapter 51 59 sec
different principle. We're writing the image, using a highly focused laser beam onto the Xerox drum. The rest then is just using a copier machine fair. But to do that, you have to switch on and off the laser beam problem. So that's at a lower level to invent a wedge to thatChapter 52 59 sec
invention, isn't a sort of doing something supremely creative in your mind. It finishes up that way. It might be very creative, but all inventions are basically as problem-solving. Yeah. So to do something more mundane imagine I live here in Palo Alto let's say I work in the financial district in San Francisco and let's say my car's in the shop getting repairedChapter 53 59 sec
Maybe I can get my daughter or my wife or her husband, whatever it is to, to drive me. Then the other end, I can get an Uber or I could get a a colleague to pick me up, but then I'd have to get up an hour earlier, or maybe I'll just sit at home and work from home, which is more of the solution we would do these daysChapter 54 59 sec
eat there, but anyway so what's really important in invention. I think this goes to your mission. If I understand it, rightly is the people who have produced inventions are people who are enormously familiar with what I would call functionalitiesChapter 55 59 sec
in engineering, at least what they teach you apart from all that mathematics is to know certain functionalities. So you could use capacitors and inductors to create, and also electronic oscillations or regular waves. You can. Straighten out varying voltage by using induction in the system, you can store energy and use that in capacitorsChapter 56 59 sec
creativeChapter 57 59 sec
some problem and say, oh, okayChapter 58 59 sec
do that?Chapter 59 59 sec
in a way that makes creating these inventions easier. So like in the sense that very often what you see is like someone who knows a lot aboutChapter 60 59 sec
think quite often you see a pattern where some principle is borrowed from a neighboring discipline. So Henry you were saying that Henry Ford took the idea of a conveyor belt from the meat industry. Right. And and by analogy use the same principle with manufacturing cars. But to get that to work in the car industry, the limitations are different cars are a lot heavier, so you could have a whole side of beef and it's probably 300 pounds or whateverChapter 61 59 sec
can have the carcass suspended from an over hanging belts working with a chain system and the carcass is cut in half or whatever and suspendedChapter 62 59 sec
example blockchain is basically let's say it's a way of validating transactions that are made privately between two parties without using an intermediary, like a bankChapter 63 59 sec
one field to another. And it's we tend to talk about inventions being adopted. At least we do an economic. So you could say the, the arts trading system adopts block chain, but it's not quite that it's something more subtleChapter 64 59 sec
inform insurance companiesChapter 65 59 sec
time, so different industries say like Oceanwide Frazier shipping and you conjure it exists. Okay. And by the time they encounter it, they're not just saying I'm going to have a little GPS system in front of, in the Bennett code it's actually built in. And it becomes part of a whole navigational systemChapter 66 59 sec
called and data processing units that we don't think of it that way now, but you could process thatChapter 67 59 sec
maybe on paper unconscious computation. Now can do that. Yeah. Automatically using computationChapter 68 59 sec
paper. Right. But it's, it's something that exists between us or like democracyChapter 69 59 sec
car. And things like insurance for widows and pension systems. There's many of those social technologies even things like Facebook platforms for exchanging information. Sometimes very occasionally things like that are created by people sitting down scratching headsChapter 70 59 sec
rather nice a single house on my estate. You haven't got the money to purchase and build it. I will lend you the money and you can repay me as time goes by. And in fact, the idea that so many of those things have French names, more, more cashChapter 71 59 sec
to something. And then that natural thing is used again. And again, it gets a name and then somebody comes along and says, let's institutionalize this. So I remember reading somewhere about the middle agesChapter 72 59 sec
It goes back to Egypt and engineered people withholding their services, but that becomes, gets into circulation as a meme or as some repeated thing. Yeah. And then somebody says, okay, we're going to form an organizationChapter 73 59 sec
and and put that, put that loan to to its death and mortgage it. So the I think in this case, what happens in these social inventions is that sensible things to do gets a name, gets instituted, and then something's built around it. Well, one could also say that many inventions are also the sensible thing to do where like it's someone realizes like, oh, I can like use this material instead of that materialChapter 74 59 sec
w we'll replace this material. Well, why doesn't that count as an invention?Chapter 75 59 sec
metal, right?Chapter 76 59 sec
in this 16, 20 or 16, Forties that uses a string and a bulb on the end of the string. And then you replace the string where the wire or piece of metal rigid. You're not really using a new phenomenon, but you are using different materials and much of the story of technology isn't inventions, it's these small, but very telling improvements and materialChapter 77 59 sec
then one that's built out of better componentsChapter 78 59 sec
that radar uses a different principle from people listening, you could say, well, I mean, people listening are listening for vibrationsChapter 79 59 sec
could argue, well, aren't you use a phenomenon phenomenon of the first thing you're using the weight of water and gravity, and the fact that you can turn somethingChapter 80 59 sec
it's. Like, whether it's like a fractal thing or whether there are like, like multiple different processes going on as wellChapter 81 59 sec
radio circuits until you're blue in the faceChapter 82 59 sec
ship. If you're using steam and take the sails down you're using, in my opinion, a different principle, a different phenomenonChapter 83 59 sec
with thatChapter 84 59 sec
But you haven't invented a new principle of a sailing ship. It's still a sailing ship. So I think you're getting into details that are worth getting into at the time I'm writing this. I I was trying to distinguish, I'm not trying to be defensive hereChapter 85 59 sec
steam engineChapter 86 59 sec
technology hasn't changed muchChapter 87 59 sec
hope people will sort of like do, based on what you've written like, is, is there, is there sort of like a line of work that you want people to be, to be doing, to like take the sort of the framework that you've laid out and run with it?Chapter 88 59 sec
this subject. I can send you a link if you want, please. Yeah. I listened to tons of podcasts, so, yeah. Anyway, but I went back and read the book. You're like, wow, I'm really smart. Well, it had that effect. And then I thought, well, God, you know, it could have been a lot better writtenChapter 89 59 sec
when you open them up, meaning have you look at the inside components, how those work and how ultimately the parts of a technology are always using some, none, you know, we can ignite gasoline and a, in a cylinder, in a car, and that will expand rapidly and produce forceChapter 90 59 sec
that have had far more widespread notice than this. And I think it's something tech the study of technology, as I was saying earlier on is a bit of a backwater in academic studies. Yeah. It's eclipsed. Is that the word dazzled by science it's?Chapter 91 59 sec
lot of what should have been theories of technologies, where they come from, it's sort of gone into theories of science and I would simply point out no technology, no science when you can't do much science without telescopes crystallography x-rays systems microscopesChapter 92 59 sec
and there was a lot of fuss about it at the time. And then it was kind of like a submarine that appeared and then die. Everything was quiet. Got there, period. It has to be a renewed interest in it this last year. So I have no idea why I suspect I'm trying to keep my own ego out of thisChapter 93 59 sec
systemsChapter 94 59 sec
mentally F this is very fancy comparison. But it shouldn't have said men to left. I'm thinking of gosh, Mendel, Gregor Mendel, Greg Armento. Yes. Sorry. Okay. Mendel had a theory of genetics and by the time that could properly develop too, you know, it was too late for himChapter 95 59 sec
then we'd outputs. And some of the outputs might be rolled. Steel would be inputs to other factories systemsChapter 96 59 sec
et cetera. I think if you want to understand those properly, you need to very good understanding of technology and how autonomous systems can work, work, and where technology has come fromChapter 97 59 sec
tech platform technologies think of Facebook or Google for that matter. Another platform technologies, Uber. These are technologies where you can dial into the technology and use it services maybe as a passenger in Uber, or maybe as someone recording information and Facebook, many technologies technology is resisted in many ways because it can produce really nasty things war the automation of war et ceteraChapter 98 59 sec
wonderful. You know, I'm a, I'm a great consumer. A late night detectiveChapter 99 59 sec
not very well. It could be nefarious or could be wonderfully beneficial. I would argue that I used to teach classes here in economic developmentChapter 100 59 sec
family, my grandmother died over a hundred years ago of something that would be perfectly treatable. Yeah. Pernicious, anemia, and et cetera. So if the least we can, I've mixed feelings about technology as a, the humanist part of the more practical engineer would say, well, you know, maybe you can, maybe you can criticize technology, but you might be doing it with a swimming pool in your backyard with a Volvo in the driveway with your smart and your hip pockets and, and with your children all alive and a hundred years ago, none of those would have been the caseChapter 101 59 sec
bad? Well, yeah, but we have to be careful. I want to mention one thing if I may, and yeah, this is your platform. The one thing is thatChapter 102 59 sec
jet aircraft. Yeah. Et cetera. And new amplifier circuits around 1912 using trialed vacuum tubes become available to power radio receivers and res radio transmittersChapter 103 59 sec
Well, this is a process, so, well you can take the Harbor process or any yeah. So the, the Solvay process, oh, it is for, for obtaining setting. Right? Okay. So the. Yeah, Solvay process produces sodium carbonateChapter 104 59 sec
evolution technology that if you take the whole collection of technologies at any one time period, some of those existing technologies in combination are making novel technologies and many of the novel technologies go on to become building blocks for yet further technologiesChapter 105 59 sec
andChapter 106 59 sec
mostly technologies evolve. Bye now of all technologies becoming components and yet other technologiesChapter 107 59 sec
sort of evolution, competent tutorial evolutionChapter 108 59 sec
many creatures evolved out of other cells that become absorbed into our modelChapter 109 59 sec
so many, see if I can give you a, a decent answer, serious answer to thatChapter 110 59 sec
evolution for technology and as such I, I haven't seen that much academically coming up, building on this quite surprisingChapter 111 59 sec
Darwin's things, variation and accumulation of small differences. This book puts together a version of evolution that says there's a mechanism. Well, a novel things are created via a combination of the old and become available themselves as building blocks for further combination. Yeah. I am amazed and surprised that I haven't seen that idea taken upChapter 112 59 sec
about in any detail. I'm sure if you go back, you'd find that some people been vaguely aware, but nobody really has written about it in detail. So I think that that would be worth taking up and looking at, in some detail, I'd call it a second evolutionary mechanismChapter 113 59 sec
authoritiesChapter 114 59 sec
et cetera. It's, it's certainly certainly the case in engineering it's case in science as wellChapter 115 11 sec
